Analysis of across time chart patterns suggests the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran may become multidimensional. North Korea, Russia, and China could be involved. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to polarize the international community into opposing blocs.
Oil prices are escalating. There is a need to avoid this war early to escape stagflation, which is caused by surging inflation and stagnant growth. The Strait of Hormuz choke has disrupted global trade, causing concern.
Undoubtedly, gold and silver futures have been facing significant selling pressure since Feb.28, 2026 – the advent of this war between the U.S.-Israel and Iran – when the gold futures tested a fresh peak, after record-peak-testing on Jan.29 at $5,645.36, on March 3, 2026, at $5,435.42 – since then, following a sliding path at the 50-degree angle of depression.
I observed that, even after a 17-day-long war that is still ongoing, there are no signs of imminent de-escalation. However, a few preliminary signals that could be reasonable in resolving this war are starting to appear.
The war has caused devastating destruction around the world and appears driven by the personal ego of two individuals: U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.
U.S. President Donald Trump wants control over Iran’s oil reserves in the name of regime change. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spent decades preparing for this showdown with Iran, anchoring his political career on his vow to defend Israel against its Iranian nemesis.
On Saturday, Israel informed the United States that its stockpile of ballistic missile interceptors has reached “critically low” levels as the regional conflict with Iran continues to escalate, according to an exclusive SEMAFOR report.
U.S. officials confirmed the strain on Israel’s long-range defence systems is increasing. This strain is due to the volume of Iranian fire and the introduction of cluster munitions. The attacks force more defensive launches to protect population centres.
Undoubtedly, the Trump administration has signalled its intent to maintain a “virtually unlimited” munitions stockpile, recently bypassing Congressional approval to sell 12,000 bomb bodies to Israel by citing an emergency declaration. The decision underscores the urgency of the replenishment cycle for the defence industry.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth recently claimed that Iran’s “entire ballistic missile production capacity” has been “functionally defeated,” yet Tehran has signalled its readiness for a prolonged engagement, suggesting that demand for interceptors will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
The primary concern for investors remains the “burn rate” of these high-cost assets. The U.S. is estimated to have fired $2.4 billion worth of Patriot interceptors in just the first five days of the current war.
On the other hand, North Korea has issued a statement supporting Iran, with its foreign ministry slamming the US and Israeli military operations as an “unlawful military attack” and a “despicable form of violation of national sovereignty”. It accused Washington and Tel Aviv of “destroying the regional peace and security foundations” and trying to overthrow Iran’s social system.
Netanyahu has suggested that, having created the conditions for regime change, Israel could now withdraw and wait for Iran’s internal pressures to take their course.
But there is a political risk for Netanyahu in leaving the regime intact.
Regime change would deprive many of Israel’s regional enemies – like Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hamas in Gaza – of Iranian funding, training, and weapons, potentially transforming Israel’s security.
But after assassinating Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an air strike, and making repeated calls to the Iranian people to use this moment to rise up, Netanyahu has now signalled the war may end with the regime still in place.
In his first press conference since the war began, he told Israelis that the bombing campaign had already changed the balance of power in the Middle East in Israel’s favour.
“We can already say with certainty: this is no longer the same Iran, this is no longer the same Middle East, and this is not the same Israel,” he said.
Some in Israel will read that as a sign that Israel is being asked to wind up the war, amid signs that spiralling oil prices are putting the US government under pressure to call an end to the conflict.
Donald Trump has said the US military has bombed a small island off the coast of Iran – home to a major oil terminal that is considered the country’s economic lifeline.
The US president said Kharg Island’s military facilities were “totally obliterated” but that it had held off targeting its oil infrastructure.
Trump, however, warned that he would reconsider the decision not to target oil facilities on the island should Iran or others “do anything to interfere” with the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most important shipping channels, located south of Iran’s coast.
Iran’s military said oil and energy infrastructure belonging to firms working with the US would “immediately be destroyed” should Kharg’s oil infrastructure be attacked.
Now, President Trump said on Sunday he is demanding that other countries help protect the critical energy gateway, adding that Washington is in talks with several nations about policing it.
Over the weekend, Trump threatened further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub after hitting military targets, drawing a defiant response of more retaliation from Tehran. Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
Iranian drones hit a key oil terminal in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates shortly after the attacks on Kharg. Oil loading operations at Fujairah have since resumed, four sources said, but it was unclear if the operations were back to normal.
In a weekly chart, gold futures, after starting this week with a gap down, are trying to defend the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($4,967), where a breakdown will push the futures to test the next supports at the 20 EMA ($4,676) and 50 EMA ($4,086).
In a weekly chart, silver futures are trading at $80.355, just below the immediate support at the 9 EMA ($81.530). They could head to test the next support at the 20 EMA ($73.956), where a breakdown will accelerate selling.
In a daily chart, silver futures are trading below the 50 EMA ($80.541), where a sustainable move could push the futures to test the next support at the 100 EMA ($71.184) as the formation of “three outside crows” could extend the bearish pressure.
In a daily chart, the spot gold and silver (XAU/XAG) ratio looks ready to test the next resistance at 65, where a breakout would confirm the continuity of exhaustion in gold and silver futures.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and silver at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.