The number of robotaxis on American roads is still fairly low, but that’s set to change in 2026.
Tesla’s robotaxi initiative — which combines self-driving technology with artificial intelligence — has investors talking about a potential $3 trillion market capitalization by the end of the year (1). Meanwhile, Alphabet-owned Waymo expects to complete 1 million fully autonomous rides every week within that same timeline (2), and Amazon-owned Zoox has plans for a major expansion in the coming year.
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The global robotaxi fleet is projected to reach 934,000 vehicles by 2035, with a market value of around $105 billion, according to Markets and Markets (3). North America is leading in technology innovation and regulatory support in pilot zones, while China is leading in rapid scaling and government-backed smart city infrastructure.
But regulatory hurdles remain an issue in the U.S., with a patchwork of federal, state and local laws, as well as ongoing safety investigations. Growth also hinges on consumer acceptance, and whether there’s enough demand to validate robotaxis as a scalable business.
Tesla has launched its robotaxi service in the San Francisco Bay Area, as well as Austin, Texas. For the most part, robotaxis still have human “safety supervisors” on board, but Tesla has started testing fully driverless robotaxis in Austin (4).
The company is also planning to start production of its two-seater Cybercabs in April — a robotaxi without a steering wheel or pedals — which Morgan Stanley analysts estimate could deliver service as low as $0.40 per mile (5).
While Tesla is currently worth about $1.5 trillion, some analysts say it could be worth $3 trillion by the end of 2026. However, this is a bullish analyst projection linked to future revenue streams, not current market cap.
At the moment, though, Waymo is leading the pack, operating driverless robotaxis in Austin, Phoenix, Atlanta, Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. It also has plans to expand into 26 markets in the U.S. and abroad in 2026.
Zoox, which was granted an exemption by federal vehicle safety regulators earlier this year for its unique toaster-shaped robotaxi, has been offering free driverless rides to the public around San Francisco and the Las Vegas Strip.